Population Projections

Population Projections 2010-2040

Download PDF

Download Excel

The current projections are considered preliminary as projections have more error as they move further from the most recent census (2010). We plan to revise our projections after the 2020 Census data is released. The current projections highlight expected changes based on recent trends. Future trends may be different due to the cyclical nature of migration (i.e. oil drilling) and due to policy changes that directly aim to impact migration or other components of population change. If you are in need of additional projection information (age groups, sex, etc.), please contact  Dr. Jacqueline Miller, as these may be available. 

County

July 1, 2010

July 1, 2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Bernalillo665,418681,233688,329693,134694,874694,327
Catron3,7293,4913,3623,2213,0642,897
Chaves65,74764,67064,01663,13261,96060,586
Cibola27,27626,98126,78726,49826,08925,595
Colfax13,73811,75210,7129,6218,4807,313
Curry48,44050,52151,51452,34352,94353,367
De Baca2,0161,7811,6581,5271,3881,245
Doña Ana209,941218,971223,282226,879229,484231,331
Eddy53,87559,17961,81864,27966,46868,435
Grant29,47527,65226,67125,58524,37723,092
Guadalupe4,6864,3304,1413,9343,7093,472
Harding692677668657643627
Hidalgo4,8694,1713,8053,4223,0202,610
Lea64,93372,61876,46280,09383,38986,405
Lincoln20,52319,39718,78818,10517,33716,514
Los Alamos17,93518,76519,16419,50119,75319,941
Luna25,09324,30023,85423,32022,67821,963
McKinley71,53371,63771,58171,27670,65169,795
Mora4,8744,4704,2564,0243,7723,509
Otero63,89167,27868,91870,34171,45972,340
Quay9,0128,2037,7747,3136,8166,297
Rio Arriba40,23338,72137,88336,90335,75234,485
Roosevelt19,82819,33119,04518,68918,24817,747
Sandoval132,535147,069154,322161,141167,281172,862
San Juan130,367126,358124,102121,383118,106114,447
San Miguel29,37127,47926,46325,34224,10022,782
Santa Fe144,555150,488153,311155,641157,291158,420
Sierra11,95610,89810,3379,7339,0818,400
Socorro17,90616,96916,46015,88715,24014,544
Taos33,00832,79532,63532,36031,93831,412
Torrance16,36815,53115,07614,56313,98213,356
Union4,5584,0733,8183,5463,2562,956
Valencia76,81475,19374,24473,02371,47069,684

STATE
Total

2,065,1942,106,9812,125,2582,136,4142,138,0992,132,755

Projections Methodology Statement

The current projections are considered preliminary as projections have more error as they move further from the most recent census (2010). We plan to revise our projections after the 2020 Census data is released. The current projections highlight expected changes based on recent trends. Future trends may be different due to the cyclical nature of migration (i.e. oil drilling) and due to policy changes that directly aim to impact migration or other components of population change. If you are in need of additional projection information (age groups, sex, etc.), please contact Dr. Jacqueline Miller, as these may be available.

• Projections Methodology and Suggested Citation for Use:

  • The University of New Mexico Geospatial and Population Studies (GPS) releases periodic July 1 population projections for New Mexico and its 33 counties. These projections are used by several state agencies and private entities for research and planning purposes. GPS uses a standard cohort component method based on the demographic balancing equation: Popt = Popt-1+ Births – Deaths + Net Migration
    These 2020-2040 five-year interval projections begin with GPS population estimates. From this, the number of expected deaths is subtracted from the population using life tables calculated from the New Mexico Department of Health. Next, the number of expected births for the female population ages 15-44 is calculated using fertility data from the New Mexico Department of Health. Finally, net migration is calculated based on recent historical trends. This was not straightforward for the 2020-2040 estimates, because of large in-migration between 2000 and 2010 and because of large out-migration between 2010 and 2015. Neither of these trends is expected to soon return or continue. Therefore, migration was roughly calculated as half the net migration observed between 2000 and 2010. This process is completed for each county and then controlled to a statewide projection total.

  • University of New Mexico, Geospatial & Population Studies. NM Population Projections, 2022. May 17, 2023