Population Projections
The current projections highlight expected changes based on recent trends. Future trends may be different due to the cyclical nature of migration (i.e. oil drilling) and due to policy changes that directly aim to impact migration or other components of population change. If you are in need of additional projection information, please contact Dr. Jacqueline Miller, as these may be available. Data up to 2050 available on PDF and Excel downloads.
County | 2010 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo | 662,564 | 676,438 | 680,584 | 683,372 | 684,673 | 684,461 | 683,327 | 681,386 |
| Catron | 3,725 | 3,582 | 3,539 | 3,454 | 3,340 | 3,193 | 3,031 | 2,844 |
| Chaves | 65,645 | 65,158 | 64,822 | 64,303 | 63,626 | 62,740 | 61,669 | 60,380 |
| Cibola | 27,213 | 27,172 | 27,045 | 26,917 | 26,751 | 26,536 | 26,277 | 25,968 |
| Colfax | 13,750 | 12,385 | 11,859 | 11,156 | 10,275 | 9,170 | 7,930 | 6,511 |
| Curry | 48,376 | 48,429 | 48,474 | 48,504 | 48,524 | 48,532 | 48,531 | 48,523 |
| De Baca | 2,022 | 1,697 | 1,568 | 1,417 | 1,233 | 1,006 | 757 | 479 |
| Doña Ana | 209,233 | 219,567 | 224,218 | 228,058 | 230,554 | 231,449 | 231,167 | 229,861 |
| Eddy | 53,829 | 62,314 | 65,964 | 69,139 | 70,992 | 71,376 | 70,759 | 69,270 |
| Grant | 29,514 | 28,190 | 27,482 | 26,599 | 25,491 | 24,077 | 22,446 | 20,541 |
| Guadalupe | 4,687 | 4,451 | 4,326 | 4,179 | 3,996 | 3,762 | 3,492 | 3,177 |
| Harding | 695 | 655 | 646 | 624 | 596 | 560 | 519 | 471 |
| Hidalgo | 4,894 | 4,180 | 3,826 | 3,466 | 3,030 | 2,497 | 1,909 | 1,251 |
| Lea | 64,727 | 74,455 | 78,781 | 82,337 | 84,395 | 84,796 | 84,073 | 82,372 |
| Lincoln | 20,497 | 20,273 | 20,225 | 20,123 | 19,945 | 19,716 | 19,457 | 19,154 |
| Los Alamos | 17,950 | 19,418 | 19,857 | 20,439 | 20,791 | 20,883 | 20,793 | 20,545 |
| Luna | 25,095 | 25,422 | 25,500 | 25,593 | 25,658 | 25,687 | 25,689 | 25,668 |
| McKinley | 71,492 | 72,898 | 72,972 | 72,761 | 72,486 | 72,203 | 71,966 | 71,769 |
| Mora | 4,881 | 4,185 | 3,933 | 3,599 | 3,190 | 2,684 | 2,126 | 1,497 |
| Otero | 63,797 | 67,843 | 68,287 | 68,736 | 68,780 | 68,821 | 68,541 | 68,232 |
| Quay | 9,041 | 8,744 | 8,536 | 8,356 | 8,128 | 7,835 | 7,494 | 7,094 |
| Rio Arriba | 40,246 | 40,359 | 40,266 | 40,247 | 40,217 | 40,185 | 40,156 | 40,130 |
| Roosevelt | 19,846 | 19,197 | 19,095 | 18,986 | 18,712 | 18,421 | 18,012 | 17,578 |
| Sandoval | 131,561 | 148,829 | 157,468 | 164,648 | 169,117 | 170,460 | 169,575 | 166,753 |
| San Juan | 130,044 | 121,663 | 119,657 | 117,590 | 113,548 | 109,362 | 102,927 | 96,336 |
| San Miguel | 29,393 | 27,203 | 26,064 | 24,902 | 234,235 | 21,577 | 19,470 | 17,036 |
| Santa Fe | 144,170 | 154,823 | 1603,47 | 164,754 | 167,424 | 168,148 | 167,499 | 165,656 |
| Sierra | 11,988 | 11,574 | 11,323 | 11,064 | 10735 | 10,313 | 9,825 | 9,252 |
| Socorro | 17,866 | 16,602 | 16,008 | 15,408 | 14,713 | 13992 | 13,188 | 12,350 |
| Taos | 32,937 | 34,488 | 35,367 | 35,949 | 36,300 | 36,391 | 36,299 | 36,048 |
| Torrance | 16,383 | 15,045 | 14,575 | 13,947 | 13,145 | 12,126 | 10,978 | 9,654 |
| Union | 4,549 | 4,083 | 3,895 | 3,709 | 3,444 | 3,178 | 2,898 | 2,614 |
| Valencia | 76,569 | 76,205 | 77,118 | 77,320 | 77,536 | 77,825 | 78,233 | 78,491 |
STATE | 2,059,179 | 2,117,527 | 2,143,658 | 2,161,645 | 2,164,780 | 2,153,964 | 2,131,015 | 2,098,886 |
- New Mexico Trends and Projections Slides [pdf]
- New Mexico County Projections (Total and by Age/Sex) [xlsx]
- New Mexico County Projections (Total and by Age/Sex) [pdf]
- New Mexico County Projections (Total by Sex) [shapefile.zip]
- Long Format New Mexico State Population Projections with codebook (by Age and Sex) [zip]
- UNM-GPS Projections Methodology Statement [pdf]
The current projections highlight expected changes based on recent trends. Future trends may be different due to the cyclical nature of migration (i.e. oil drilling) and due to policy changes that directly aim to impact migration or other components of population change. If you are in need of additional projection information, please contact Dr. Jacqueline Miller, as these may be available.
• Projections Methodology and Suggested Citation for Use:
The University of New Mexico Geospatial and Population Studies (GPS) releases periodic July 1 population projections for New Mexico and its 33 counties. These projections are used by several state agencies and private entities for research and planning purposes. UNM-GPS uses a top-down approach for producing population projections in which the state’s population is projected followed by the county projections. For the state level projections, GPS uses a standard cohort component method based on the demographic balancing equation: Pop t = Pop t-1+ Births – Deaths + Net Migration. The 2023-2050 five-year interval projections begin with GPS’s 2022 population estimates produced in July 2023 ( “Launch Population”) and add in births, deaths and migration.
The county projections are then adjusted to sum to the state totals for all age and sex combinations. County-level projections were first projected using an extrapolation method, with county age and sex distributions determined using Cohort Change Ratios. For more details on our methodology, please download our Methodology Statement.
UNM Geospatial & Population Studies. (2024). NM Population Projections, 2023 – 2050
