Population Projections

Population Projections 2010-2050

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The current projections highlight expected changes based on recent trends. Future trends may be different due to the cyclical nature of migration (i.e. oil drilling) and due to policy changes that directly aim to impact migration or other components of population change. If you are in need of additional projection information, please contact Dr. Jacqueline Miller, as these may be available.  Data up to 2050 available on PDF and Excel downloads.

County

July 1, 2010

July 1, 2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Bernalillo662,564676,438680,584683,372684,673684,461
Catron3,7253,5823,5393,4543,3403,193
Chaves65,64565,15864,82264,30363,62662,740
Cibola27,21327,17227,04526,91726,75126,536
Colfax13,75012,38511,85911,15610,2759,170
Curry48,37648,42948,47448,50448,52448,532
De Baca2,0221,6971,5681,4171,2331,006
Doña Ana209,233219,567224,218228,058230,554231,449
Eddy53,82962,31465,96469,13970,99271,376
Grant29,51428,19027,48226,59925,49124,077
Guadalupe4,6874,4514,3264,1793,9963,762
Harding695655646624596560
Hidalgo4,8944,1803,8263,4663,0302,497
Lea64,72774,45578,78182,33784,39584,796
Lincoln20,49720,27320,22520,12319,94519,716
Los Alamos17,95019,41819,85720,43920,79120,883
Luna25,09525,42225,50025,59325,65825,687
McKinley71,49272,89872,97272,76172,48672,203
Mora4,8814,1853,9333,5993,1902,684
Otero63,79767,84368,28768,73668,78068,821
Quay9,0418,7448,5368,3568,1287,835
Rio Arriba40,24640,35940,26640,24740,21740,185
Roosevelt19,84619,19719,09518,98618,71218,421
Sandoval131,561148,829157,468164,648169,117170,460
San Juan130,044121,663119,657117,590113,548109,362
San Miguel29,39327,20326,06424,902234,23521,577
Santa Fe144,170154,8231603,47164,754167,424168,148
Sierra11,98811,57411,32311,0641073510,313
Socorro17,86616,60216,00815,40814,71313992
Taos32,93734,48835,36735,94936,30036,391
Torrance16,38315,04514,57513,94713,14512,126
Union4,5494,0833,8953,7093,4443,178
Valencia76,56976,20577,11877,32077,53677,825

STATE
Total

2,059,1792,117,5272,143,6582,161,6452,164,7802,153,964

Projections Methodology Statement

The current projections highlight expected changes based on recent trends. Future trends may be different due to the cyclical nature of migration (i.e. oil drilling) and due to policy changes that directly aim to impact migration or other components of population change. If you are in need of additional projection information, please contact Dr. Jacqueline Miller, as these may be available.

• Projections Methodology and Suggested Citation for Use:

  • The University of New Mexico Geospatial and Population Studies (GPS) releases periodic July 1 population projections for New Mexico and its 33 counties. These projections are used by several state agencies and private entities for research and planning purposes. UNM-GPS uses a top-down approach for producing population projections in which the state’s population is projected followed by the county projections. For the state level projections, GPS uses a standard cohort component method based on the demographic balancing equation: Pop t = Pop t-1+ Births – Deaths + Net Migration. The 2023-2050 five-year interval projections begin with GPS’s 2022 population estimates produced in July 2023 ( “Launch Population”) and add in births, deaths and migration.

    The county projections are then adjusted to sum to the state totals for all age and sex combinations. County-level projections were first projected using an extrapolation method, with county age and sex distributions determined using Cohort Change Ratios. For more details on our methodology, please download our Methodology Statement.

  • UNM Geospatial & Population Studies. (2024). NM Population Projections, 2023 – 2050